Chargers (11-6) @ Texans (10-7) (Chargers -3)
One of these teams enters this playoff game on a 3 game winning streak, the other has just won for the first time in 3. One beat a Tennessee Titans team which now holds the number 1 overall draft pick in April, the other finished the regular season with back to back road wins and took down the in form Broncos. And yet, by virtue of the way Playoff seeds are decided, the inform team, with a better 11-6 record will travel again this weekend to the winners of the AFC South.
The job Jim Harbaugh has done in his first season as head coach of the LA Chargers is superb. An 11 win season – 2nd in their division only to the 15 win Chiefs – built on the number 1 ranked scoring defense and an offense which just doesn’t turn the ball over.
Contrast that with the Texans, who’ve been streaky this season. They flew out of the gates – winning 5 of their first 6 games. They then lost 3 of their next 4 and suffered a home defeat to the Titans in November. Despite that, they found a way to overcome injuries to key players and secure playoff football in back to back seasons.
If they are to win this game, they’ll need to control the clock and run the ball well. At times this season CJ Stroud hasn’t been able to reach the lofty heights we saw in his rookie year and that’s reflected in a record which saw him finish with 20 TD passes and 12 interceptions. However, Joe Mixon passed 1000 rushing yards and averaged 4.1 yards per carry. He will need to be prominent on Saturday and Houston will need to make each possession count.
The Chargers bring a physicality with them – they lean on a strong ground game on offense and defensively they can get after the quarterback with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack with safety, Derwin James patrolling the secondary. Their defense is ranked 7th against the pass and 8th overall. The Texans boast the 6th ranked defense and have 19 takeaways this season.
This may not be a high scoring game and it may well be decided by the team which commits fewer errors. At this stage of their respective careers Justin Herbert is the quarterback who merits greater confidence (23 TDs, 3 INTs) over Stroud’s potential and it’s the Chargers who look the more rounded team of the pair.
PICK: Chargers -3
Steelers (10-7) @ Ravens (12-5) (Steelers under 18.5 points)
This is the 2nd time in 4 weeks that these two AFC North rivals clash and the 3rd time this season. They’ve split the series 1-1. Perhaps more relevant is the recent form. Pittsburgh have been in free fall at exactly the wrong time of year – they’ve lost 4 in a row heading into the playoffs while Baltimore have won 5 of their last 6.
There’s no doubting the strength of the Steelers team. It lies on defense. A unit which ranks 8th against the pass, 7th in points allowed (20.5ppg) and 4th in takeaways AND they have the elite, game changing talent of TJ Watt. Recently though, Pittsburgh have been making too many mistakes and when you have an offense which struggles, mistakes are a luxury you cannot afford. The problem all year long has been at quarterback. Justin Fields filled in for the injured Russell Wilson in the first month of the season but even when Wilson returned this isn’t a unit which has lit up the scoreboard. In 5 of their last 7 outings, they’ve failed to reach 20 points. When you’re playing a team like the Ravens, that’s a problem!
Two names are enough to spark fear into any defensive player – Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry – and this is exactly the time of year Baltimore signed Henry to perform in. While questions can be asked about Jackson’s throwing accuracy in big moments, you can’t argue with his numbers – 41TD passes, 4INTs. He’s also rushed for 4TDs. While Henry finished with 1921 rushing yards, 16TDs and averaged 5.9 yards per carry. As a unit, the Ravens are no. 2 overall, 7th in passing, 2nd in rushing and 3rd in points scored (30.5ppg).
Defensively, they’re the best in the NFL at stopping the run and rank 8th overall. The discrepancy between these two teams is just too big for Pittsburgh to make up – their only hope is to limit Baltimore to field goals rather than touchdowns while playing a mistake free game. Recent weeks suggest that just isn’t going to happen.
PICK: Steelers Under 18.5 Points
Broncos (10-7) @ Bills (13-4) (Bills – Over 28.5 Points)
There is a lot of buzz around Denver right now after returning to the playoffs for the first time in 8 years. Rookie QB Bo Nix has undoubtedly been the main reason, seemingly improving with every game and his standout performance in a “must win” game last Sunday was a highlight. The chemistry he’s struck with leading wide receiver Courtland Sutton is impressive and so too is the Broncos defense.
It’s tough to run the ball on them (6th in the NFL) and they don’t give up many points – just 19.4 per game, which makes them the 4th best in the League. Without doubt cornerback Patrick Surtain is a big reason – his secondary play is elite and if he has another big game on Sunday, Denver may well win.
Don’t overlook the Bills though. Driven all year by last season’s playoff heartbreak, QB Josh Allen has raised his game to another level and that’s been helped by the mid-season acquisition of receiver, Amari Cooper. His ability to keep plays alive, combined with elite arm strength make him a nightmare for opposing defenses. 28 passing TDs and only 6 interceptions show an awareness to look after the ball that perhaps we haven’t seen previously. That’s without mentioning the 531 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns he’s scored this season. All of which is helped by the improved play at running back from James Cook, who’s averaging 5 yards per carry and scored 15 TDs.
It’s an enticing matchup. The Bills are annual contenders. The Broncos haven’t been here since last winning the Super Bowl. The question is, has HC Sean Payton found the winning formula or is it still work in progress?
Bo Nix has made remarkable progress this season, but this is a new experience altogether in a new environment. There are few atmospheres quite like Buffalo and it shouldn’t be overlooked that despite thrashing a Chiefs team which rested most of their key starters, Denver have lost 2 of their last 3 – both on the road at the Chargers and Cincinnati. 2 games where they gave up 34 and 30 points. In contrast, Buffalo’s offense is humming. In 9 of their past 11 games, they’ve scored at least 30 points – they’ve scored 40 in 3 of their last 5! Defensively…. they’re good enough – ranked in the top half of the league in all but passing.
The Broncos story is inspiring, but the Bills will likely have to have too much firepower on the day.
PICK: Bills Over 28.5 Points
Packers (11-6) @ Eagles (14-3) (Packers under 21.5 points)
This is a tall order for the Green Bay Packers – and that was before they lost their deep threat receiver, Christian Watson to an ACL injury last weekend!
When these two teams met on the opening weekend in Brazil, the Eagles left with the W. The Packers had serious concerns over whether Jordan Love would play again this season. Thankfully his injury wasn’t as serious as first feared and on the back of a strong run game (ranked 5th in the NFL), they chalked up 11 wins.
It’s in the trenches where this game will be decided. The Eagles boast the NFL’s leading rusher – Saquon Barkley amassed 2005 yards in the regular season – and the no. 2 ranked rush offense. Both teams are good defending the run – bot are among the NFL’s to 10 but the playmaking ability of Jalen Hurts with his legs may well be the difference. Having missed the regular season finale due to being in the NFL’s concussion protocol, the expectation is he gets the all clear this week but this is something to watch.
In terms of putting points on the board, there’s nothing to choose between the teams with both scoring just over 27 points per game. Defensively they’re both strong with Philadelphia holding a slight edge defending the pass – they’re no. 1 in the league, Green Bay 17th. If Hurts is good to go on Sunday, this has to be an area the Eagles exploit. They have the more playmakers and with AJ Brown, Davonta Smith and Dallas Goedart, there will be matchups they can take advantage of.
Week 1 was a high scoring game – Philly winning 34-29. But the Eagles defense has found its grove in the 2nd half of the season. Only once in their last 9 games have, they given up more than 20 points. On that occasion, Jaydn Daniels enjoyed success through the air for Washington and CJ Gardener-Johnson was ejected from the game for Philly. It’s tough to see how the Packers replicate the Commanders success. If they are to cause an upset, it’ll be in a low scoring game. So, despite scoring at least 22 points in all of their last 7 games, as the old saying goes – a good defense beats a good offense. That run ends here. The Eagles defense ranks in the top 10 in just about every major category and they neutralise the Packers on Sunday
PICK: Packers Under 21.5 Points
Commanders (12-5) @ Buccaneers (10-7) (Total Points – Under 50.5)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers squeaked into the playoffs with a less than convincing win over the Saints on Sunday to secure the 4th seed as NFC South champions. Sound familiar? It should do. 12 months ago we were saying the same thing – only it was a less than convincing win over the Panthers but look what they went on to do. Missing out on a place in the NFC Championship game after the Lions edged them in a thriller. This team has taken on the identity of QB Baker Mayfield. No play is dead until it’s dead, they’re competitive, they fight and often they find a way. Remember, this is a team that has beaten the Lions – in Detroit this year. They’ve overcome a slew of injuries to record 10 wins and now they’re in the dance again.
Speaking of which, how about those Commanders?! A 12 win season with a rookie QB and a first year head coach in charge. An offense which is 7th overall, 3rd in rushing, and 5th in scoring. Quarterback Jayden Daniels has recording 3568 passing yards and 891 rushing yards – the first rookie QB to do that in NFL history. It’s a team storming into the post season, on the back of 5 straight wins and one that has developed a knack of pulling last gasp victories out of the bag this season.
They’re weakness is defending the run – they’re 30th against the run this year, compared to the 3rd best in the league against the pass. The run game is where Tampa Bay have shown a dramatic improvement. From one of the worst in the NFL last year to 3rd best this year – thanks to a 2-headed monster in the back field of Rachaad White and rookie, Bucky Irving. They’ve combined for over 1800 rushing yards! When you have a strong run game, it opens up opportunities on the outside for the receivers and Mike Evans is one of the best in the history of the game – the first ever to record 1000 receiving yards in each of his first 11 seasons.
It goes without saying then, for the Commanders to win this game, they need to ensure Tampa are playing from behind and force them out of the run game. The concern is, as good as Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is, there have been alarming spells during games over the last 2 months when it has looked stagnant. Largely due to opponents looking to keep Daniels in the pocket and playing coverage, forcing him to make decisions. That’s not to say he’s incapable of doing it, it just highlights the maturation process needed to be successful in the NFL.
The Buccaneers have struggled twice in recent weeks against quarterbacks who get the ball out of their hands quickly – Sunday against the Saints and before Christmas when they lost in Dallas. However, the Buccaneers were architects of their own downfall on both occasions. Failing to look after the ball and committing turnovers. This is the key to this game. If Tampa look after the ball, they win it. If they hand it to Washington, make no mistake, this Commanders team is more than good enough to take full advantage.
Having had a taste for the big stage last season though, I think it’s time to “Bake” in Tampa, Mayfield and his surrounding cast are the type of gritty team no-one really wants to face and this Sunday, they’ll show us all why once again.
PICK: Total Points – under 50.5
Vikings (14-3) @ Rams (10-7) (Rams +1.5)
The Vikings were 1 win away from putting their feet up this weekend and enjoying a bye. 1 win away from having extra time to recover from a physical, bruising battle in Detroit. As it is, they now had to travel to LA and face a Rams team, who’ve already beaten them this year – at this venue. The question is, will that spur them on to win when it matters or will the mental and physical preparation for this game take its toll?
On paper, there’s no question who the better team is. Minnesota hold the number 5 ranked scoring defense – holding teams to an average of 19.5 points per game. They were absolutely going toe to toe with the Detroit Lions last week but they got away from who they are this season. Failing in multiple 4th down conversions instead of taking the points and kicking field goals. Turning the ball over on downs instead of taking the ball away – they’re the number 1 defense in takeaways this year (24)! I doubt they’ll do the same on Monday night.
Offensively, Sam Darnold has been a revelation – 4319 passing yards, 35 TDs, 12 INTs in the 6th best passing offense in the NFL, which averages 25.4 points per game. On the ground Aaron Jones is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and is a constant, live threat.
However, the Rams have a live running threat of their own. Kyren Williams has stepped up to the tune of 1299 yards and scored 14 TDs. Without doubt helping veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford – who played much of the year without at least one of his star receivers. Now the Rams head into this game with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua fit. Their star players are fresh after resting last weekend, having already tied up the division. Since the beginning of December (last weekend’s game aside) the Rams are 5-0 – that includes a huge home win over the Buffalo Bills when they scored 44 points!
The feeling is, there’s little to choose between the teams heading into this game. In most other seasons Minnesota’s record would earn them a 1st round bye in the playoffs. This year it doesn’t and now they have to travel across the country to take on a red hot team who have players and a coach who knows what it takes to win at this stage of the year. Home field advantage may give the Rams just enough to prevail.
PICK: Ram +1.5
