Buccaneers (3-1) @ Falcons (2-2) – Bucs +1.5
This is a HUGE NFC South divisional clash to kick off week 5 in the NFL!
The Bucs bounced back from a disappointing loss to the Denver Broncos with a mightily impressive win over the Eagles last weekend. It can be no coincidence that the return of Vita Vea to anchor their defensive helped the Buccaneers stifle Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense. True, Philadelphia can point to being down their top two receivers; however, but for an early 3rd quarter run, Saquon Barkley wasn’t the force running the ball we’ve come to expect and with the pressure on Hurts to throw the ball, there wasn’t much success in the passing game.
Contrast that with a Bucs offense which is very much led by Baker Mayfield now. This team appears to have rallied around his character and leadership, transforming their fortunes but that will now be tested. The Bucs start on a run which sees them go on the road in back to back games against divisional opponents (Falcons and Saints) before running a gauntlet of games which includes the Kansas City Chiefs.
You feel Tampa at worst need to split these next two games 1-1 before entering that stretch. It won’t be easy though against a Falcons team which appears to be well balanced and showed plenty of character in overcoming the New Orleans Saints last weekend. They have home field advantage on Thursday night as well. If there is a criticism, its they perhaps have entrusted Kirk Cousins in key situations more than their dual running threat of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. While that may be understandable, given the $100m contract they’ve given him, right now, the run game is the stronger force on this offense.
The Bucs have an answer for that though in the shape of Vita Vea. No-one has enjoyed too much success on the ground against the Bucs when he plays this season, and we shouldn’t expect that to change on Thursday night. If this game comes down to which quarterback you trust the most, I’m taking Baker Mayfield over Kirk Cousins – and who would have thought we’d be saying that a year ago?!
PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5
Jets (2-2) @ Vikings (4-0) (London) – Jets +2.5
Hands up if you thought the Minnesota Vikings would head to London with a perfect 4-0 record when the schedule was released back in May. No-one? No, me neither! Yet here we are and to his credit, Sam Darnold has looked every bit the quarterback the New York Jets thought they were selecting back in 2018. Defensively, this team, under defensive coordinator, Brian Flores has been outstanding as well through the first 4 weeks of the season. Stifling the 49ers, Texans and the Packers last week – in Lambeau Field!
If you’d describe the Vikings as red hot right now, you might say the Jets were at best, lukewarm in comparison. At 2-2, this feels like it might be a tipping point game for Gang Green. Losing at home to the lowly Denver Broncos in lousy condition last weekend was bad enough but the body language on display afterwards was more troublesome. The apparent contradiction between head coach, Robert Salah and quarterback Aaron Rodgers didn’t do anything to quieten the unease either. Yet, there is cause for optimism as they arrive in London. As good as the Vikings have been and as well as they’ve played on defense (2nd v the run and no. 4 in points allowed), they’re pass defense has been shocking. The Vikings are the worst team in the NFL defending the passing game. So, if there was ever a moment for Aaron Rodgers to silence the noise around this team and find his mojo with a talented receiving corps, this is surely it!
Right now, the Minnesota Vikings must feel like their playing with house money. They’re surpassing all expectations (perhaps even their own!) and they’ve claimed notable scalps along the way. They head into Tottenham Hotspur stadium as favourites and the stats would back that up BUT this is the NFL. It’s a league which contradicts itself and often when teams are riding high, there’s an unexpected jolt on the journey. The Jets are not riding high. There’s been a lot of noise around them all week, but they have Aaron Rodgers. They have a defense full of elite players which is the 2nd best in the NFL right now. It’s gut check time for this team. I don’t expect the offensive line to be plagued by pre-snap penalties as they were last weekend. I do expect Aaron Rodgers to get the job done.
PICK: New York Jets +2.5
Bills (3-1) @ Texans (3-1) – Bills -1
Buffalo are coming off of a crushing road loss to Baltimore last Sunday night – a game which saw Derrick Henry and the Ravens run all over them. The good news is, the Texans backfield is plagued by injuries with 3rd choice, Cam Akers currently filling the starting role.
There was a sense that last Sunday highlighted some of the Bills’ shortcomings despite having won all of their first 3 games. Josh Allen at quarterback is still one of the best in the league and at times already this year he’s put this team on his back. Yet they are an offense which ranks 20th overall and in passing yards but somehow is number 2 in points scored (30.5ppg). A defense which takes away the ball certainly helps – ranking in the top 10 – and you sense that’s going to be an important aspect for them if the Bills are to keep winning.
Of course, this match up could be labelled the Stefon Diggs revenge game after the Bills traded him to Houston this past off season but it’s another receiver, Nico Collins who Buffalo would be well advised to pay attention to – he’s establishing himself as CJ Stroud’s go to guy on the Texan’s’ offense. Houston showed plenty of character in overcoming the Jaguars last weekend, having lost heavily in Minnesota a week earlier but perhaps more troubling is the way both of those teams were able to move the ball and put points on the board.
Make no mistake, Houston is a good team, but we may just be seeing a few second year growing pains for a 2nd year QB and a young, injury hit roster. If so, it couldn’t come at a better time for a Buffalo Bills side who are looking for a “get right” performance
PICK: Buffalo Bills -1
Cowboys (2-2) @ Steelers (3-1) – Steelers -2.5
Sunday Night Football sees a battle of historical rivals but it’s the first time the Cowboys and Steelers have ever met on Sunday night.
Dallas have had 10 days to prepare for this one – and they’ve needed it. WR Brandin Cooks is out with a knee problem, pass rusher Demarcus Lawrence is out with a foot injury while Micah Parsons would appear unlikely to play with a high ankle sprain. A defense which has struggled this season is now down 3 of their best players if you include CB DaRon Bland (foot) as well.
All that bodes well for Pittsburgh BUT they have injury issues of their own. Now down 3 starting offensive linemen and relying on Justin Fields at quarterback. In his defense he’s largely played well through the first month of the season. However, when they got behind early last weekend in Indianapolis and the Steelers had to do more than just run the ball, the frailties were exposed with one horrendous turnover committed when Justin Fields had already lost 20 yards trying to avoid the pass rush.
The key for Dallas to win here is to put points on the board. The problem is – garbage time against Baltimore aside – this offense which has been a top 10 scoring unit in the last 4 years, has struggled to do that this time around. Their run game is no existent – the Cowboys are dead last when running the ball in the NFL this season – and no-one has stepped up outside of Cee Dee Lamb in the receiving game. Throw into the mix the problems Dallas have had in stopping the run themselves – even when their best two defensive ends are healthy – and this would appear to play into Pittsburgh’s hands. If they don’t turn over the ball, they win on Sunday night.
PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
