Chargers (7-4) @ Falcons (6-5) (Chargers -1)
Atlanta – fresh off a bye week – still top of the NFC South host the LA Chargers. Who themselves come into this matchup, on the back of a short week following Monday night’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Perhaps more concerning than that defeat was the loss of running back JK Dobbins with a knee injury before half-time. Dobbins was drafted by the Ravens in 2020 but signed a 1 year deal with the Chargers this past off-season after missing the best part of 2 season through injury. He was averaging 4.8 yards a carry and had already totalled over 700 rushing yards this season. His loss will be a significant blow to the Chargers.
Atlanta will be looking to come out of their bye week firing on all cylinders having suffered 2 straight defeats going into it. Their most recent – a comprehensive 38-6 loss in Denver. It’s left the door open in the race to be crowned NFC South champions and they need to right the ship in a hurry. If they are to do so, it’ll be through their offense – ranked 8th overall, 5th in passing, with a the mercurial Bijan Robison an ever present threat out of the backfield. However, the Chargers are the number 1 team in the NFL in points allowed – they’re giving up fewer than 16 points per game – and for all of Atlanta’s attacking prowess, they’ve lacked a ruthless streak when it comes to getting the ball into the end-zone, averaging just 22 points per game.
Even without JK Dobbins, don’t expect the Chargers game plan to change. They’re going to play hard-nosed, smash mouth football and Atlanta have yet to show that’s a game they can compete in. Everything suggests that the Falcons should be favourites – home filed advantage, an extra week to prepare, the Chargers on a short week……but the odds makers have Los Angeles as slender favourites for a reason…
PICK: Los Angeles Chargers -1
Buccaneers (5-6) @ Panthers (3-8) (Buccaneers -6)
Despite suffering 4 straight losses the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took advantage of their division rival, Atlanta Falcons bye week to haul themselves back into the division title race with a thumping road win over the New York Giants. To make things even better, veteran WR Mike Evans returned to action with a 5 catch, 68 yard game to bolster their offense. On paper, this looks straight forward for the Buccaneers, but a division rivalry rarely is – less so, when that team appears to have turned a corner.
The Carolina Panthers had won 2 straight prior to last week and then gave the defending Super Bowl Champion, Kansas City Chiefs all they could handle before the Chiefs got out of dodge with a game winning field goal as time expired. They edged the Saints in a 1 point game and took down the Giants in overtime. Suddenly, Carolina have become competitive in the last month and that should send alarm bells ringing.
However, Baker Mayfield thrives in a battle and in the 18 months he’s been in Tampa, it appears to be a perfect fit. Don’t expect anyone in the Buccaneers organisation to overlook Carolina – especially at a time when they are fighting for their playoff lives! While their defensive stats haven’t been great this year, Tom Bowles teams still know how to bring pressure and that can be done through scoreboard pressure on offense as well. This Buccaneers team – despite having to deal with some key injuries – are still ranked 7th overall on offense, 7th in passing and crucially, 4th in points scored – averaging 28 per game.
The Panthers are showing life but often teams trying to find their way, stumble along the way and Tampa Bay are built to take advantage.
PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6
Eagles (9-2) @ Ravens (8-4) (Ravens -2.5)
This may well be the game of the week!
Two teams in form. Two teams with mobile quarterbacks. Two teams who score points for fun!
And yet, it doesn’t feel as though the Eagles get quite the love their 9-2 record should warrant. While there appears to be an underlying feeling that the Ravens are a better team than that 8-4 record would suggest. The Eagles are in the midst of a 7 game winning streak. The Ravens have only won 3 of their last 5. So, what gives?
Well, Baltimore’s 2 defeats were both against division rivals. Since week 3 those are the only 2 losses they’ve suffered! In the 8 wins they’ve accrued in that period; they’ve never scored fewer than 28 points. Then there’s QB Lamar Jackson’s record against NFC teams. As a starter in the NFL, he is 22-1 when playing teams from the NFC and he has never lost to an NFC team when playing at home.
The Eagles will absolutely believe they can keep pace with the Ravens though. Baltimore’s defense hasn’t been great this season. They’re giving up nearly 25 points per game! They rank 31st in defending the pass and now here comes a Philadelphia outfit with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith at wide receiver. It’s not as though the Eagles have needed to feature them much in recent weeks though because while Baltimore have King Henry in the backfield, Philadelphia have a stud of their own. Saquon Barkley has been feasting on opponents games. He recorded over 300 scrimmage yards on Monday night against the Rams and he leads the NFL this season in rushes of 30 yards (9), 40 yards (6) and 50 yards (5). It’s not surprising that this team leads the league in rushing!
Their defense ranks in the top 10 in just about every major category BUT these games are often decided by one person. One moment of individual brilliance and the Ravens have Lamar Jackson. The longer the season’s gone on, the better he’s played – and he’s needed to.
Look at the strength of schedule the two teams have played. Philadelphia have taken care of business but the only team they’ve beaten with a winning record in this 7 game strength is Washington. Meanwhile Baltimore have beaten the Chargers on the road, Denver, Buffalo and Washington.
On paper, you might give a slender edge to the Eagles, but the eye test points to Baltimore at home.
PICK: Baltimore Ravens -2.5
