Steelers @ Colts (Steelers -1.5)
If defense wins championships, the city of Pittsburgh and its fans have every reason to be excited through 3 weeks of the new season. This Steelers unit are rekindling memories of the famed “Steel Curtain!” They lay claim to the top scoring defense in the NFL to this point – giving up just 8.7 points per game. Their week 1 showing in Atlanta was impressive. Last week’s display against a physical, tough running LA Chargers front may have been more so. The Steelers are tied for 2nd (Minnesota Vikings) in run defense – giving up just 71.3 yards per game – and their +4 turnover differential puts them 3rd.
Critics will rightly point to the offensive side of the ball, which has only put up an average of 17 points per game so far and question the viability of Justin Fields at quarterback. However, he is doing all that is being asked of him. He’s looking after the ball, eliminating game killing errors and, last weekend, showed the ability to make big plays a key points in the game. Frankly, when your defense is playing at the level we’re seeing in Pittsburgh right now, that’s all you need!
Compare that to this weekend’s opponents. The Colts run defense is the 2nd worst in the NFL – thanks in no small part to their week 2 loss in Green Bay where the Packers racked up over 250 yards on the ground. Offensively, they’re averaging a lick under 21 points per game but quarterback, Anthony Richardson is making the game killing plays. 3 turnovers in Green Bay were followed by an awful endzone interception pass last weekend. Indianapolis were able to overcome that blunder to record their first win of the season against the Bears but it doesn’t hide the main problem that their quarterback has continually put them in tight spots this season. Prior to last weekend’s game his completion percentage was just 49%. As a result, their defense is showing signs of strain, and the team has a -2 turnover differential – bottom 10 in the league.
Ultimately, this is the difference between the two teams. Pittsburgh leave Indianapolis, 4-0.
PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5
Browns @ Raiders (Raiders -1)
How do you solve a problem like the Raiders? 2 weeks ago, they go into Baltimore, rally from a double digit, 4th quarter deficit and shock the Ravens. Last weekend, they hosted the hapless Panthers and get dominated in every facet of the game by the returning Andy Dalton.
Post game, head coach, Antonio Pierce said he felt some players made “business decisions” in the game and warned that the team may make business decisions in return. Everyone in Las Vegas has been put on notice that, that performance was unacceptable, and I don’t expect to see a repeat for the visit of Cleveland.
The Browns head to the desert with the same 1-2 record as the Raiders but they also arrive on the back of a humbling home defeat – to the New York Giants. That’s despite being spotted a 7 point lead after the Giants fumbled the game’s opening kick-off! They’re problem is multi-layered. Firstly, quarterback, Deshaun Watson just doesn’t look like the same player who led the way in Houston. He appears indecisive, inaccurate and appears somewhat less mobile than he was at the Texans. It should be pointed out that the second part of this problem is the Browns offensive line. Already down both starting tackles, they lost a 3rd last weekend. Right now, opposing defenses are having a clear run at the quarterback. When that opposing defense contains Maxx Crosby…..watch out!
As a result, only New England has a worse offense this season and the Browns are averaging just 16.7 points per game. In the absence of Nick Chubb, an offense which is predicated on running the ball, simply can’t do so and Watson’s production last weekend – 21/37-196yds-2TDs – suggests he’s not about to put this team on his back.
PICK: Las Vegas Raiders -1
Chiefs @ Chargers (Total Points – under 39)
This is an AFC West battle that everyone was looking forward to – even before the season started! Make no mistake, the Kansas City Chiefs are the team to beat – reigning Super Bowl champions, undefeated at 3-0 and of course, Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. The odds makers like them as well – they’re 7.5 point favourites heading into this game but that isn’t the line we’re looking at.
The Chargers are missing star Safety, Derwin James – serving a 1 game suspension. Star pass rusher, Joey Bosa left last weekend’s loss at Pittsburgh early and never returned. While quarterback, Justin Herbert also left early with a troublesome ankle injury, but he’s already shown his toughness on multiple occasions and don’t be surprised to see him suit up on Sunday. With these key issues, I too expect the Chiefs to extend their unbeaten start to the season but it’s the total points line for this game which is more interesting.
The LA Chargers are a run first offense – and they’ve done it relatively successfully so far this season. They hold a top 10 run offense, but the Steelers were able to slow them last weekend and the Chargers were only able to put 10 points on the board. With a depleted defense they’ll need to do a lot better than that to have any chance of winning this game.
That’s going to be difficult against a Chiefs team whose strength is no longer their offense but now their defense. We’ve seen it in back to back weeks. First against Cincinnati and then against Atlanta – with the game on the line, it has been their defense which has made the plays to close out games.
Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes but as yet, the Chiefs offense still has been able to take the top off of opposing defenses. Rice and Worthy both have pace to burn but we’ve yet to see either run by the secondary into wide open space this season. As a result, the Chiefs have had to be patient while Mahomes leads long drives for scores.
This would seem to play right into the hands of what Jim Harbaugh wants to install as his gameplan this weekend. The Chargers are only averaging 19 points per game, but their defense is only giving up 11 per game. The Chiefs are down their leading rusher, Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce has only recorded 8 catches for 69 yards in the first 3 games combined!
Everything points to an attritional affair in LA – a battle. Yes, expect Kansas City to win but if you enjoy seeing the scoreboard light up, this won’t be for you.
PICK: Total Points – Under 39
