Steelers (10-4) @ Ravens (9-5) Total Points – Under 45
Saturday night. Prime Time. The top 2 teams in the AFC North going head to head in what will be a physical, tough, hard hitting battle – and it’s all on the line!
If Pittsburgh win, Baltimore can kiss their hopes of winning the division goodbye. That’s because the Steelers would hold a 2 game lead over them with 2 games to play AND the tie breaker by virtue of sweeping them in their 2 meetings.
The Ravens hold the number 1 ranked offense in the NFL, they’re number 2 in rushing, number 3 in passing and scoring BUT defensively they’re not so strong – 31st in the league defending the pass and 22nd in scoring defense, surrendering just shy of 23 points per game.
What Pittsburgh have achieved to this point is impressive – given they signed 2 new quarterbacks in the off season and Justin Fields was the starter for the first month and a half due to Russell Wilson’s injury. Doubt, there may have been, but their offense ranks in the top 10 in scoring and top 10 in running the ball. Defensively, they’re in the top 9 of most major categories -with the exception of passing defense where they’re vulnerable, ranked 22nd.
Both teams have been handily beaten by the Eagles in the past month but both teams tend to put points on the scoreboard (Ravens 29.9ppg, Steelers 24ppg). So, this should be a shootout, right? Not so fast!
When was the last time you can remember a Steelers/Ravens encounter lighting up the scoreboard? You have to go all the way back to 2020 to find the last time they combined for 50+ points. Indeed, in 11 of their last 13 encounters they haven’t reached 41 points combined. Of course, the argument this year is that these are two top 10 scoring offenses – it’s different! Well, when these two top 10 scoring offenses met just 6 weeks ago, they slugged out an 18-16 win for Pittsburgh.
With so much on the line for both teams – the opportunity for Pittsburgh to effectively close out the division, the Ravens desperate to blow it wide open – this isn’t going to be two teams rolling up and down the field, scoring points for fun. This is going to be a traditional AFC North rivalry between two teams that know each other well and frankly don’t care much for each other. It’ll be gritty, tense and every yard will be hard earned.
PICK: Total Points – under 45
Jaguars (3-11) @ Raiders (2-12) Raiders -1
If the Steelers and Ravens are two of the best teams in the NFL, then the Jaguars and Raiders are certainly two of the worst this season! 7 teams currently possess a 3-11 record or worse. Of those only the Giants and Raiders are 2-11 – right now the Giants hold the number 1 overall pick, Vegas number 2.
It’s 10 straight defeats for the Las Vegas Raiders heading into this game and it seems incredible to think they did actually go into Baltimore and beat the Ravens back in week 2. That day they scored 26 points – 1 of only 3 occasions all year that they’ve scored more than 20. So, what gives them hop this weekend?
Well, they’re facing a team with the worst defense in the NFL! The Jaguars are ranked dead last when it comes to defending the pass, 24th against the run, 28th in points allowed (26.9pp). While offensively they are in the bottom 10 in just about every major category. Now, despite their owes, Vegas is 15th in passing offense – they can move the ball through the air. They can’t run it – they have the worst rushing offense in the league. But their defense ranks 12th overall. They have the ability to take advantage of some Mac Jones’ errors with a 9th ranked passing defense and whatever you think of this team, Antonio Pierce does appear capable of firing his players up.
Remember, this is a team that should have beaten the Chiefs in Kansas City on Thanksgiving Day. However, that pretty much sums up both of this teams – they’ve just been unable to get out of their own way this season. So, when you put them together what swings this game? Defense – Vegas have shown an ability against good teams to play defense and frankly the Jags haven’t. Holding the Titans to 6 points really doesn’t count – a game where Jacksonville themselves could only score 10!
It maybe the Jaguars, not the Raiders who are closer to the number 1 overall Draft pick after this weekend.
PICK: Raiders -1
Eagles (12-2) @ Commanders (9-5) – Commanders under 20.5pts
12 months ago, the wheels well and truly came off for the Philadelphia Eagles at this stage of the season. Fast forward a year, supported by Vic Fangio’s defense, it’s a very different story. This is the best unit in the NFL! Ranked number 1 overall. Number 1 in pass defense, number 1 in points allowed (17.6ppg) and 7th against the run. Align that with an offense which runs the ball better than anyone else and you have a team which can control the clock, dominate possession and not allow the opposition to score – it’s a good combination!
Washington started the season on fire. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels could do no wrong, and this team was winning games, blowing out opponents. Well, the last month or two’s been a little tougher. The high scoring offense hasn’t been moving the ball quite so freely and wins have been a little harder to come by. Even so, it’s a team which seems destined for a return to the playoffs. This is a big step up in quality of opponent though.
The Eagles came out on top when they last met in November, 26-18 and Washington have homefield advantage for this clash. BUT victory over the Titans when they last played at home was their first home win since October 27th. November was a barren month with losses to both Pittsburgh and Dallas and now the Eagles are flying!
Nobody has held Philadelphia to fewer than 22 points in over 3 months and few are able to slow down running back, Saquon Barkley, who’s just 312 yards shy of becoming the 9 the player in history to run for 2000 yards in a season. This is a worry for most teams – even more so if, like Washington, your run defense is ranked in the bottom 10 (25th) in the NFL.
So, this is the key to this game. Who can run the ball better and who can control the time of possession. Washington can rightly point to their own run game – it’s the 3rd best in the league. But that also benefits from often playing from the front this season. Against Pittsburgh and Dallas recently, that wasn’t so effective and it’s tough to see how they dominate this matchup to a point where the Eagles have to chase them. If anything, form suggests it might be the other way round. So, the question becomes how many points can Washington score? Can they crack the code to unlock the Eagles defense? Has offensive co-ordinator, Kliff Kingsbury got a gameplan that turns the tables in Washington’s favour?
History in the NFL always points to one thing, a good defense tends to overcome a good offense. Philadelphia are in the fortunate position of having both this season. The Commanders may get there at some point in the near future but it’s not right now.
PICK: Commanders – under 20.5 points
