Chiefs (12-1) @ Browns (3-10) (Total Points – Over 45.5)
They may not have been the most entertaining team this season. They may not have blown opponents away with a high scoring offense but make no mistake the Kansas City Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl champions, and they remain the yardstick marker in the NFL.
At 12-1, their record is tied for the best in the National Football League this season and while the Detroit Lions have been blowing opponents off the park, the Chiefs have been grinding out results. 10 of their wins have come by just a 1 score margin. 3 different kickers have connected with walk off field goals for them. They’ve blocked a field goal attempt that would have beaten them. They’ve forced a turnover with the opponent in field goal range to beat them. They’ve had the benefit of an officiating decision. They have embraced drama at every turn but when the dust settles, these are the undeniable facts. The Kansas City Chiefs currently hold the no. 1 seed in the AFC, they’ve now won their division for a 9th straight year, and they’ve now recorded 12 wins in 6 of the last 7 seasons.
It’s no surprise then, that they are favourites going into Cleveland against a team who’ve only won 3 games all season, had 3 different starting quarterbacks and have failed to live up to pre-season expectations. But overlook the Jameis Winston effect at your peril. Never dull, always entertaining and something of a rollercoaster ride! He will sling the ball around and he’s just as likely to find the endzone on several occasions in a game as he is to throw a pick 6! Whichever Jameis turns up, one thing’s for sure, the Chiefs will have to work for this result. The fans will still be loud and Cleveland is not an easy place to play in.
We should expect a few fireworks though. While the Chiefs 6th ranked defense will look to feast on Winston errors, the Browns will take chances. Interestingly every other game they’ve played in the past 6 weeks has results in a high scoring affair following a relatively low scoring game. Well, the Browns head into this one on the back of a 27-14 loss to Pittsburgh. Every other week over the last 6 has seen the game total reach at least 49. If that trend continues, this will be another high scoring affair and backed by the Dawg Pound, I see nothing but encouragement for Jameis Winston – with the added spice of playing the reigning champs and the chance to take them down. If Cleveland do go down, they’ll go down fighting…
PICK: Total Points -Over 45.5
Dolphins (6-7) @ Texans (8-5) (Dolphins +3)
Houston are coming off a bye week, Miami, an overtime win over the Jets. That game was one which the Dolphins were expected to win comfortably but had to come from behind to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Not all is rosy in the Texans camp though. This season has been more of a struggle for them than many expected and although they hold a 2 game lead at the top of their division, it’s been far from plain sailing – they’ve lost 3 of their last 5! The chance of an extra week to prepare for this clash will be welcome and they’ll believe they have the talent in their squad to mount a serious run at the business end of the season.
Miami know they can’t afford many – if any – slip ups, if they are to make the playoffs. On paper their offense hasn’t fired – it ranks 19th overall and 23rd in scoring. Disappointing for a unit with so many weapons. BUT that includes a substantial period when they were without QB Tua Tagovailoa. Since he returned to action in week 8. This is a top 6 ranked unit – they’ve won 4 of their last 5 games and 2 of their 3 defeats since he returned were by a combined total of just 4 points. In fact, across 7 games, they’ve scored fewer than 23 points just once – in a loss at Green Bay. This team is playing good football right now and they face a Texans offense which is spluttering!
Houston rank 18th overall. QB CJ Stroud hasn’t been firing on all cylinders and this game will tell us a lot about where both these teams are at. It won’t be a blow out win for Houston – and Miami may just cause an upset…
PICK: Miami Dolphins +3
Colts (6-7) @ Broncos (8-5) (Broncos -3.5)
Hands up if you had the Denver Broncos making the playoffs this season! This writer certainly didn’t – and they may still fall short – but they’ve put themselves in a great position to end an 9 year post season drought. That’s right – the 2015 season was the last time they went to the playoffs – and they won it all at Super Bowl 50. Now, with rookie QB BO Nix, they’re set to return again, and they can take a giant step towards it with victory this weekend over the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts themselves have an eye on the post season. Despite sitting with a 6-7 record, they remain in the hunt but can ill afford any more losses. That means finding some consistency. They’ve lost 4 of their last 6 but the optimist will point out they’ve won 2 of their last 3. Their wins have come against poor teams – the Patriots and the Jets. Their losses have come against good teams, teams in the playoff hunt – Detroit, Buffalo, Minnesota and Houston. So what Colts team should we expect to see this weekend?
Well, playing in the rarified air at Mile High, it’s going to need to be a team which plays solid, mistake free football – one that can be every bit as physical as the Broncos. The problem is, QB Anthony Richardson is a little boom or bust. He can wow you with his arm strength and make plays with his legs but he’s also a QB who’s only thrown 7 touchdowns this year compared to 9 interceptions. He’s scored 4 rushing touchdowns but lost 3 fumbles. Now he’s going up against a Denver defense which is one of the best in the NFL. Ranking 8th overall, 4th in points allowed (18 ppg) and 9thi n takeaways.
Their weakness on paper – defending the pass where they rank 19th this season but they have one of the best Corners in the league, shutting down receivers in Patrick Surtain. Throw into the mix that Anthony Richardson just isn’t very accurate with the ball and the only way realistically Indy get out of Denver with a win is by running it successfully. But Denver have the 6th best run defense. This team is hot right now – they’ve scored 41, 29 and 38 points in their last 3 games. All of them wins! They’ve had the bye week to prepare for this matchup and that’s extra time for head coach Sean Payton to scheme for what Indy have to offer.
If Denver can close this out, they look certainties to be in the playoffs. If Indianapolis lose, their season might just be about over.
PICK: Denver Broncos -3.5
