Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) @ Tennessee Titans (3-9) (Titans -3.5)
Let’s not dress this up into something this game isn’t. Let’s be upfront and honest – these are two bad teams meeting this weekend but one has a starting QB available and the other doesn’t.
Jacksonville’s season slipped from bad to worse last weekend when Trevor Lawrence was carted from the field with concussion following a late hit. He may now miss the remainder of the season. In his absence Mac Jones has hardly lit up the Jaguars’ offense in the games he’s played. Somehow, they managed to reach 20 points in Sunday’s loss to Houston but before that they scored 6 against Detroit and 7 against Minnesota – in a game where the Vikings allowed them to hang around!
In contrast, the Titans do have their gun slinger. Will Levis might not have lived up to expectations this year but he is capable of making plays – and if the Titans can stop turning the ball over, they will win this game. That’s been one of their biggest issues though. The 23 times in 12 games they’ve given the ball back to their opponents puts them at 31st in the NFL for giving the ball away! Without doubt that’ll be an area the Jags will hope to capitalise on.
However, Tennessee have the NFL’s no. 1 ranked pass defense and despite their poor record this season, that defensive unit stills ranks no. 2 overall. The Jags are dead last when it comes to total defense, last in passing defense, 30th in points allowed and only 27th in takeaways.
The Jags are a team who don’t put points on the board. Their only 2 wins have come at home to Indianapolis and at Wembley against the Patriots. Simply put Tennessee aren’t as bad as Jacksonville right now.
PICK: Titans -3.5
Chicago Bears (4-8) @ San Francisco 49ers (5-7) (Total Points- Under 44)
The sky has somewhat fallen in on the San Francisco 49ers. Already in a hole prior to last weekend’s defeat in Buffalo, that loss also saw them lose running backs, Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason for the rest of the year. A 5-7 record doesn’t rule them out of the NFC West but it’s difficult to see how they climb back into the playoff race from here. So probably the last team you want to face is a young, hungry outfit, with a high calibre defense and a rookie quarterback who is seemingly growing up infront of our eyes.
True – the Bears have found different ways to lose in recent weeks, and that has cost Matt Eberflus his job as head coach, but there’s a tenacious quality about Chicago and QB Caleb Williams you can’t help but admire. That has translated into spirited second half comebacks against Green Bay, Minnesota and Detroit in the past 3 weeks BUT it hasn’t translated into wins.
Now, if anyone can devise an offensive gameplan, it’s 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan – this is a man who won a playoff game against Green Bay several years ago while only attempting 10 passing plays! However, his team are depleted on both sides of the ball and if they are going to win, they’re going to need to dominate time of possession and keep it tight. With that in mind, this is likely to be a defensive battle – both teams conscious of playing mistake free football and ensuring they don’t end up costing themselves the game!
Of Chicago’s last 6 games, only one has resulted in 44 or more total points the 30-27 loss in overtime to Minnesota. The 49ers have conceded at least 20 in each of their last 5 but haven’t scored more than 23 in any of their last 4. This isn’t going to be a shootout at Levis Stadium but don’t be surprised in the Bears pull off an upset!
PICK: Total Points – under 44
LA Chargers (8-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) (Chargers +4)
This is a huge game in the context of the AFC West and one which is likely to be very different to the 17-10 Chiefs win we saw over the Chargers back in week 4. On that occasion, the Chargers were missing key players. This time, most are available and this time the Chargers are playing well. In fact, their only defeat in their last 6 outings came against Baltimore. Even when they weren’t at their best last weekend, they were still good enough to go to Atlanta and beat a Falcons team coming off a bye week!
Now, the Chiefs are still the Chiefs. They hold the best record in football this season at 11-1 but they do appear to be creaking. This has been a season which almost defies belief in the way they’ve managed to win games. On Thanksgiving Day, the Raiders appeared to have their measure with the clock ticking down, inside field goal range and the majority inside Arrowhead Stadium fearing the worst. Only for Las Vegas to drop the ball, allow a turnover on a backward pass and let the Chiefs off the hook. Kansas City’s last 5 wins have all been by less than score!
Now you’ve got a Chargers team heading into town who also specialise in playing physical, hard nosed football and will not back down AND they hold the NFL’s no. 1 ranked scoring defense. This Chargers team allow just under 16 points per game. Kansas City are also a stingy defense – they give up under 20 point per game. So, if high scoring football’s your thing, with the scoreboard lighting up, this match up probably isn’t going to be for you.
That’s why giving either of these teams a 4 point start appears crazy. In all likelihood this match may well be decided by a last second field goal – and then there’s the law of averages…
Kansas City have won a lot of games this year – in all different manners, but just about all have come down to the last drive of the game. Whether that’s a game winning drive by the Chiefs or their defense making a stand. As good as they are, no team can prevail every time in that scenario. This weeks’ opponents are going to buckle in a tight game. They aren’t a mentally fragile group, and they love the heat of battle.
Make no mistake, this encounter isn’t going to be for the faint of heart, but it is likely to be feisty, fiery and competitive. One thing it certainly won’t be is a blowout win for either side.
PICK: Chargers +4
