Jaguars (1-4) @ (3-2) Bears (Tottenham) – Bears Over 21.5 points
The Jaguars head to London for the first of 2 back to back games having snapped a 9 game losing run with victory over their AFC South rivals, Indianapolis Colts last weekend.
While that may have got the monkey off their back, there were still some alarming moments against a depleted Colts outfit – bot least the way they allowed veteran QB, Joe Flacco to rally Indianapolis late in the game. In fact, that’s been the issue for Jacksonville all season. Only once in 5 games have they kept opponents to below 20 points (Cleveland Browns) and on average they’re giving up 28.6 points per game – that’s the 30th worst scoring defense in the NFL.
Contrast that with the Chicago Bears. Defensively, one of the best in the league through 5 weeks. They’re a top 5 unit – giving up just 17 points per game, they’re top 4 in takeaways and rank 7th overall. Whisper it quietly but there’s also a growing feeling they may have just found their Franchise quarterback as well in the form of rookie, Caleb Williams. They turned in their most impressive performance by far this season in handling the lowly Panthers last time out – beating them 36-10. They’ve only failed to reach 21 points in a game once this season and average 22.6 per game.
When you look at the skill positions, Chicago have playmakers at every spot. They also have a defense who gets them the ball. It’s inconceivable they don’t at least score their season average against the Jaguars
PICK: Chicago Bears to score over 21.5 points
Falcons (3-2) @ Panthers (1-4) – Falcons -6
This is a worrying match-up for the Panthers. Facing an NFC South rival, coming off a 10 day preparation period, having just beaten the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in dramatic fashion on Thursday Night Football. The Panthers themselves, have just been beaten handily in Chicago.
While veteran QB, Andy Dalton might have given them a brief lift in victory in Las Vegas, this still appears to be a poor Carolina outfit. Carolina are dead last in points allowed (33 per game) and 29th in points scored (16.6 per game). They rank in the bottom 6 for giving the ball away and although running back Chuba Hubbard has shown improvement over the past 2 games, the Panthers are in the bottom 10 in every other major offensive category.
Now they have to face an Atlanta team whose quarterback has just thrown for over 500 yards. In the form of Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts they have a fearsome set of receivers. That’s combined with the two headed monster out of the backfield in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. The Falcons offense ranks 10th overall. They’re 6th in running the ball and they come into this clash having just beaten the other 2 divisional rivals in back to back games.
If Atlanta get an early lead, it’s difficult to see how Carolina stay close.
PICK: Atlanta Falcons -6
Bills (3-2) @ Jets (2-3) – Jets +2.5
This is a HUGE AFC East clash between two teams who badly need the win. Now with added intrigue after the shock firing of head coach Robert Saleh following the defeat in London. It pits together two teams coming off back to back defeats. Two teams who have plenty of questions swirling around them and you sense this may well prove to be a pivotal game in each of their respective seasons.
We all know the narrative around the Jets. The quarterback and the receivers aren’t on the same page. There was obvious friction between Aaron Rodgers and Robert Saleh and they’ve been losing games, frankly they should be winning.
Buffalo shot out of the blocks – winning each of their first 3 games. But they were comfortably beaten in Baltimore, and they were second best for much of the game last weekend in Houston. However, it was the seemingly senseless play calling late in the game, which ultimately cost them the game which left many scratching their heads in frustration. Just as troubling were Josh Allen’s stats. Buffalo seem to have decided they’re throwing all their eggs in the Josh Allen basket this year. With no replacement for Stefon Diggs, they will live and die with their quarterback’s performance in each game. Against Houston he completed only 9 of 30 passing attempts for 131 yards and a touchdown. That’s not going to win many games. The bottom line appears to be, if Buffalo’s defense can’t get turnovers to set up their offense, the Bills are going to struggle this year.
Defense hasn’t been a problem for Gang Green, but their offense has. Yet, last weekend in London, Aaron Rodgers still nearly found a way to bring the Jets back from an early 17-0 hole. For the second straight week, the Jets found themselves in a scoring position to win the game and for the second straight week they found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory – this time with a miscommunication inside Minnesota’s 10 yard line that ended with a game losing interception.
Of course, a lot of the attention was directed at Aaron Rodgers, who threw 3 interceptions in the game but for now, I’m willing to believe as he said, that’s an anomaly for him.
The bottom line is, it’s easier to fix issues when you know you’ve got the pieces on your team to do it – and the Jets certainly do. Do the Bills? The answer to that question appears open to a little more debate.
PICK: New York Jets +2.5
