Texans (11-7) @ Chiefs (15-2) (Total Points – under 42.5)
They’re not as explosive on offense. Their receivers don’t make enough plays/drop too many balls. They don’t score enough points…
These are some of the commonly thrown criticisms at the 2024 Kansas City Chiefs, but the bottom line is, they are still the number 1 seeded team in the AFC. They’ve got the best record in the NFL, and they are the only team to have lifted the Vince Lombardi Trophy over the past 2 years. Oh…and Patrick Mahomes is still their quarterback.
Now, a lot of their big name players haven’t played a competitive snap in 24 days leading into this game, while the Houston Texans are coming off the back of a stirring win over the LA Chargers. They have a defense which finished the regular season as the 6th best in the NFL and terrorised Justin Herbert last weekend. But look what else they’ve done this season…
Against the Lions they forced 5 v interceptions of Jared Goff and held them to 26 points. Against the Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen had one of the worst games of his career, completing just 9 of 30 attempts with only 1 TD and recently against the Dolphins they intercepted Tua Tagovailoa 3 times. This is a unit more than capable of changing games but it’s also a unit Mahomes and the Chiefs have recently encountered.
The Chiefs were 27-19 winners in KC 4 weeks ago with their own defense forcing 2 interceptions of CJ Stroud. Of course, the Texans will rely heavily on Nico Collins in the passing game with Tank Dell ruled out for the season and Joe Mixon will need to run the ball well. But the Chiefs hold the 8th best run defense in the League and have the 4th best scoring defense (19.2ppg).
The Chiefs will be well rested but remember when these two met in the playoffs at this venue in 2020? That day Houston flew out of the blocks into a 24-0 lead. They’re defense is arguably better now than it was then while the Chiefs offense is certainly not as explosive now. Given the layoff for KC’s players a similar scenario isn’t inconceivable, but it would be a surprise. Far more likely is a physical, low scoring battle. One, the Chiefs are expected to prevail in but one that will be keenly fought.
PICK: Total Points – under 42.5
Commanders (13-5) @ Lions (15-2) (Total Points – over 55.5)
Did anyone have the Washington Commanders in the Divisional Round of the playoffs when the season began? No? Well, you’re not alone. The job Head Coach Dan Quinn has done in his first year in the position, alongside a rookie quarterback is nothing short of remarkable! 12 regular season wins. 6 of them coming in the final minute of games and now a road playoff victory as well. The question is, can lightning strike twice?
Well, the task doesn’t come much tougher. 12 months ago, the Detroit Lions were the surprise team of the year. Now, they’re favourites to go to the Super Bowl. They head into this game with the number 1 ranked scoring offense in the NFL (33.2ppg), no. 2 in passing, no. 6 in rushing. This is a juggernaut of an offense, and they can score at anytime from anywhere on the field. They have threats everywhere – whether its Amon Ra St. Brown at receiver or Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield (they have 32 touchdowns between them in 2024 – Gibbs has 20 of them!) and that maybe Washington’s biggest problem. How do they stop the run? Gibbs and Montgomery are a fearsome combination – thunder and lightning! The Commanders run defense is their weak spot. They rank 30th in the NFL this year.
The odds makers are in no doubt – the Lions start the game as 8.5 point favourites. But on any given Sunday (or Saturday in this case) a team can win the NFL. If Washington are to cause an upset, they’ll need to shorten the game. Control the ball and the time of possession, while limiting the number of opportunities Detroit’s offense have on the field. They can’t turn the ball over and Jayden Daniels will need to play a near perfect game.
It should be noted that when the Lions have had issues in the second half of the season on defense, it’s been when the opposition has a QB who can extend and make plays outside the pocket. The 49ers scored 34 points against them, Buffalo 42 and Green Bay 31 – all in the final month of the season. So, if Daniels shows the same composure, he displayed in Tampa there will be plays there to be made. The one problem with those examples of course, is that the Lions still won all three games.
This will be an entertaining matchup, and it will likely be high scoring, but it will be a huge upset if Detroit don’t progress!
PICK: Total Points – over 55.5
Rams (11-7) @ Eagles (15-3) (Rams +6)
What a night Chris Shula and his LA Rams defense had! Vikings QB Sam Darnold will likely have nightmares about them through the entire off-season as they sacked him 9 times, forced him to fumble the ball and picked him off as the Rams dominated the Vikings to book their place in the final 8. This team is as hot as they get right now! The regular season finale aside (when they rested starters) the Rams have won 6 straight – in fact their last defeat came on November 24th when they lost to…. the Philadelphia Eagles.
They’ll be acutely aware; their run defense must be A LOT better compared to that showing. Saquon Barkley had a huge night against the Rams – finishing the game with 302 scrimmage yards on his own! 255 came on the ground and he scored 2 touchdowns. If he has another day similar to that on Sunday, there’s only one winner.
The Rams have got healthy threw December though and as we saw on Monday night, they’ve got a defense which is playing at its highest level of the season. Aside from the regular season finale, this unit has held its last 4 opponents to 6, 9, 9 and 9 points respectively. Of course, it should be noted that 3 of those games came against the Niners, Jets and Cardinals but it’s impressive none-the-less and it’s not like the Eagles offense lit up the Packers last weekend.
Jalen Hurts – coming off a concussion – looked less than confident and while their defense was once again outstanding, it wasn’t mirrored offensively. That being said, this is a unit which finished the regular season ranked 7th in scoring (27.2ppg), 8th overall and, similarly to the Ravens, is capable of stressing an opponent’s defense with the ability of Hurts to make plays outside the pocket being complimented by the ever present threat of Saquon Barkley. Align that with a defense which is the best in the NFL this season, no. 1 against the pass and ranked no. 2 in points allowed. There is no question this is a big step up in quality for the Rams but they delivered in a shootout against the Bills in December and if Philly don’t raise their game, we could be in for another upset.
PICK: Rams +6
Ravens (13-5) @ Bills (14-4) (Ravens +1)
This weekend the NFL is saving the best for last. The Ravens against the Bills. Lamar Jackson v Josh Allen.
This is a mouth watering prospect. A battle between two teams – two quarterbacks – who, in any other era would likely have at least one Super Bowl winners ring by this point in their careers. However, they play in the same conference as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs – and they may still have to go through KC if they win this game on Sunday night.
Last weekend we saw exactly why the Ravens signed running back, Derrick Henry in the off-season. He literally ran over Steelers defenders on his way to another 100+ rushing yard game and 2 touchdowns. Lamar Jackson was superb, and the Ravens dominated on both sides of the ball. Their reward? A trip to Buffalo and a venue where the Bills are a perfect 9-0 this season.
Like the Ravens, offensive coordinator, Joe Brady has placed an emphasis on the run game, and they’ve been rewarded with an offense which dominates opponents. James Cook finished the regular season with 16 rushing touchdowns. The offense has scored at least 30 points in all but one of their last 11 games (regular season finale aside when they rested players). And now we’re seeing Josh Allen look to make more plays with his legs in the playoffs.
How does that compare with Baltimore? Well, the Ravens have scored at least 28 points in all but 3 of their last 11 games. Derrick Henry is a one man wrecking machine on the ground – finishing the regular season with 1921 rushing yards and 16 rushing TDs. When you face the Ravens, you need to pick your poison. The entire league knows what Lamar Jackson can do with his legs and it’s not easy to stop.
Both teams boast offenses which rank in the top 10 in just about every major category. Both teams both defenses which have unquestionably improved as the season progressed. So, what gives?
This becomes a matchup about who turns up on the day. Lamar and the Ravens won’t be fazed by the raucous Buffalo atmosphere. Josh Allen and the Bills feel this is their time and they’ve got the team to do it.
Lamar’s detractors will point to key games in his career when he hasn’t been able to make plays through the air when it matters most but this season his statistics have improved in all areas.
Buffalo’s detractors will point to history – 4 straight Super Bowl defeats. An inability to get past Mahomes and the Chiefs in the post season. For one of these teams, history will be re-written on Sunday night. For the other, a long off-season awaits.
There’s next to nothing to choose between the two. Ignore the September 29th meeting when Baltimore were handy winners. These are two different teams now. Buffalo’s home field advantage will be a factor, but Lamar Jackson finished the regular season with 41 TD passes and only 4 interceptions.
The heart says Buffalo, but stats don’t lie and so the head says Baltimore.
PICK: Ravens +1
