Commanders (14-5) @ Eagles (16-3) (Commanders +6)
Outside of maybe the Commanders organisation, no-one saw this coming! Washington went into Detroit – the home of the best team in the NFC – moved the ball, put points on the board and forced turnovers to cause the upset of last weekend. Now they’re just one win away from a place in Super Bowl LIX but it’s a familiar foe standing in their way.
The Philadelphia Eagles are the NFC East champions, but they only split their series with Washington in the regular season – surrendering a commanding lead in their last meeting and prior to that, had to mount a 4th quarter comeback to beat them in Philadelphia. They head into this clash as strong favourites but there are concerns. QB Jalen Hurts was clearly carrying a leg injury in the 2nd half of last week’s win over the Rams and the Eagles offense continues to splutter. They’ve now posted back to back games with fewer than 125 net passing yards.
Saquon Barkley is their lone stand out player right now. Another 200+ scrimmage yard game last weekend and the Commanders know all about him. Across their 2 meetings this season, he’s rushed for 4 TDs and 296 yards on the ground. Perhaps not so surprising when you consider Washington’s run defense is ranked the 3rd worst in the NFL. However, the Commanders have just faced down, the backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery – and got the win! This isn’t a group short on belief or confidence, and that should concern the Eagles.
Rookies QBs don’t tend to get this far in the post season. Even fewer knockout the number 1 seeded team. Prior to this season, only Joe Flacco could lay claim to that feat in 2009 with the Ravens. Now Jayden Daniels can say he’s done it as well. The Washington defense claimed 5 turnovers on Saturday night but the poise with which Daniels played, in a loud, hostile environment was hugely impressive. He made plays with his arm and his legs. He led a Commanders team which put 45 points on the board and proved to be too good for Detroit on the night. So, do you think going into Philadelphia will intimidate him or this group? No chance.
2 weeks ago, I’d have said the Eagles win this game – and they still should – but with a banged up quarterback, and a defense which was getting awfully short of players in the secondary on Sunday night, the complexion is changing. The weather forecast for this weekend is good. Washington’s own passing defense….is good – in fact it’s the 3rd best in the NFL and they are more than capable of scoring points themselves. Can this team upset the odds again? Maybe. They can certainly cover the spread against a team they’ve had success against already this year.
PICK: Washington Commanders +6
Bills (15-4) @ Chiefs (16-2) (Chiefs -1.5)
These two have history and their quarterbacks certainly have history. Bills QB, Josh Allen has a 4-1 record when facing Patrick Mahomes in regular season games – that includes November’s win in Buffalo. But in the post season, when it matters most, Mahomes is dominant. Josh Allen is 0-3 v Mahomes in the playoffs and that includes last season’s heartbreaking loss at home in the Divisional round.
One thing is for sure, when these two meet on the field, it’s electric – it’s must see tv!
The Bills have been excellent this season and they’d have loved this match to be in Buffalo, where they have a perfect 10-0 record this season. But Sunday’s game takes place in in Kansas City where the Chiefs are a perfect 9-0 this season. That record only tells half the story. The Bengals, Broncos, Raiders and Ravens have all got valid arguments as to how they might have won. Whether it’s an official’s call going their way, blocking a field goal attempt as time expires or forcing a turnover when the game seemed lost, the bottom line is the Chiefs find a way to win!
They’re not the flashiest offense anymore – they rank 16th overall. They’re not explosive – 15th in scoring but they do still have Patrick Mahomes – and he’s the X-factor. Defensively, this is a unit which frustrates, annoys and ultimately stifles opponents – they rank 4th in points allowed. Chris Jones remains the keystone of their defensive line and only one team can legitimately claim to have beaten a full strength Chiefs this season. That team is the Buffalo Bills.
Josh Allen appears to be a man chasing destiny. In the post season he’s putting this team on his back in big moments. He ran in two more touchdowns on Sunday against the Ravens. He’s got a cannon for an arm, and he’s got receivers who are making plays. This is an offense which is scoring 30.9 points per game. This is an offense which ranks 10th overall and this is an offense which leads the league in looking after the ball this season -they’ve turned it over just 8 times all year!
Defensively, they’re good. Just not as good as Kansas City. They do take the ball away though (ranked 3rd with 32) and that was the key factor when these two met earlier this season. If they can do that at Arrowhead Stadium, the Bills may well be returning to the Super Bowl …at last.
The issue is, we’ve been here before. Let’s just go back 12 months when the Chiefs had to go on the road and run the gauntlet in the playoffs. They were written off as outsiders. Mahomes apparently couldn’t get the offense firing and yet they ran the gauntlet. They did it on the back of a defense which handled the Bills, Ravens and 49ers – and they won it all.
Until somebody beats Mahomes and the Chiefs in the post season, they remain the standard by which everyone else measures themselves and we’ve yet to see otherwise.
PICK: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5
