Cowboys (3-7) @ Commanders (7-4) – Commanders -10
Dallas are a team in freefall. 5 straight defeats. The face of the franchise, Dak Prescott gone for the season. A defense which can’t stop anyone – 31st in points allowed, 31st in defending the run, 27th overall – and now an offensive line with it’s most experienced and arguably best player, Zack Martin, now banged up.
Washington are coming into this encounter on the back of 2 straight defeats as well but make no mistake, their arrow is very definitely pointing up! A young rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, who has just hit his first bump in the NFL road but with a team around him who are surely destined for the playoffs. In the backfield they have a 2 headed monster – Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson. At receiver they have Terry McLaurin – he’s nicknamed “scary” for a reason. Already totalling 721 receiving yards this season with 6 touchdowns. Then of course, there’s the X-factor of former Cowboys defensive co-ordinator and current Commanders head coach, Dan Quinn.
Washington have come out on the wrong side of hard fought games against the Steelers and Eagles in the past 2 weeks. Meanwhile Dallas have been blown out in just about every game they’ve lost this season. The Commanders have the 4th ranked scoring offense, averaging 28 points per game. They’ve got a dual threat quarterback going against a team that have scored 16 points combined over their last 2 games. A team which has allowed 47, 30, 27, 34 and 34 points in their last 5 outings
This won’t be a contest – Washington will put Dallas to the sword!
PICK: Washington Commanders -10
Cardinals (6-4) @ Seahawks (5-5) – Cardinals -1
This could be a sneaky good game. Before week 1, I said watch out for the Arizona Cardinals this season and although they lost that opening game in Buffalo, they’ve absolutely been one of the more impressive teams in the NFL this season – and they lead the NFC West.
The Seahawks started the season well but last weekend’s win in San Francisco might well have saved their season. It was just their 2nd win in 7 games. After starting the season 3-0, they’ve slipped to 5-5 but the manner of that game winning drive, late in the 4th quarter will certainly give them some heart.
While Geno Smith has been solid at quarterback, the rest of Seattle’s game has been decidedly average – on both sides of the ball. They’ve struggled in the run game and rank a lowly 28th, while average 23 points per game, which gives them the 16th ranked scoring offense. Defensively, they’re in the bottom 3rd of the league in rushing, scoring and overall defense.
In contrast, at first look, Arizona’s stats only look marginally better but the dual play threat posed by quarterback Kyler Murray is a big problem for Seattle to deal with and the Cardinals are coming off their bye week in red hot form – they’ve won 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. This is a team which took time to find its feet this season but they are firing on all cylinders now. They scored at least 28 points in each of their last 3 games and have offensive weapons to occupy any defense. When Murray isn’t the one making plays, rookie wide receiver, Marvin Harrison is living up to the pre-draft hype. As is tight end, Trey McBride and veteran running back James Connor gives this attack an offensive component.
The truth is Seattle struggled for much of last week’s game – as they have for the past month. Another performance like that on Sunday, and Arizona won’t be so forgiving
PICK: Arizona Cardinals -1
Lions (9-1) @ Colts (5-6) – Lions -7.5
Can anybody stop the Detroit Lions juggernaut right now? Since their solitary week 2 upset loss at home to the Buccaneers 8 teams have tried and 8 teams have failed. Even when Jared Goff threw 5 interceptions in the same game at Houston, the Texans couldn’t stop them. The worrying thing for everybody else is, the Lions actually appear to be getting better! Twice this season they’ve scored 52 points, and only twice have they been held to fewer than 24 points – both occasions came in the opening 3 weeks of the season. It’ll come as no surprise that the Lions possess the number 1 ranked scoring offense – they average nearly 34 points per game – and they rank in the top 6 in just about every other major offensive category.
So, what chance do the Indianapolis Colts have on Sunday? Well, they’re not going to win a shootout – they only average around 21 points per game themselves but in Jonathan Taylor they do possess one of the leagues best running backs. He will be key to how successful the Colts are because to compete with Detroit, they’re going to have to shorten this game. They need to dominate the time of possession by controlling the game on the ground and limiting the number of opportunities Jared Goff and the Lions’ high octane offense has. QB Anthony Richardson can help as well – he’s more than capable of making plays with his legs and he has a cannon for an arm. The problem is, that cannon of an arm isn’t the most accurate and Detroit’s defense ranks 5th in stopping the run.
Align that with a Colts defense which is 28th overall and 28th in defending a run game – that’s before they’ve faced David Montgomery and Jamyr Gibbs! They’re 26th against the pass. Now the numbers aren’t stacking up well. Realistically only the Buccaneers have been able to limit the Lions offense – and that was with the help of some key takeaways. For Indianapolis to win, they’ll have to play a near perfect game. If they fall behind early, this game could get out of hand quickly
PICK: Detroit Lions -7.5
