Chargers @ Browns (Chargers -2)
Sitting 3rd in the AFC West, the Chargers might be a little disappointed with their standing right now but with a 4-3 record they are very much in contention for a post season berth. Last weekend they took care of the Saints, now they go to a Browns team who’ve been hugely disappointing this season.
Cleveland’s potential was on display last weekend when they upset the Ravens. Jameis Winston stepped in as starting QB with Deshaun Watson and Dorian Thompson-Robinson both injured and provided the spark they needed. The problem is, Winston has been notoriously inconsistent in his career – that’s why he’s become the 3rd choice in Cleveland – and he’s yet to convince anyone that’s changed.
The Chargers are a run first offense. They play tough, physical football under Jim Harbaugh. They don’t make many mistakes, and they have a QB in Justin Herbert who can make plays when needed. Their defense is number 1 in points allowed and ranks 8th overall.
Compare that to the Browns – who are at best middle of the NFL in any major defensive category. While their offense ranks 31st overall and 27th in scoring, averaging just 17 points per game. This makes last weekend’s success against Baltimore all the more surprising! Once again, they have homefield advantage, but can they repeat the trick? They’ve won only 2 games all year. They’ve lost to the Bengals, Raiders, Giants and Cowboys – all teams with losing records. It could be that last weekend’s win was already the highlight of Cleveland’s season…
PICK: LA Chargers -2
Commanders @ Giants (Giants under 20.5 points)
How about those Commanders!! A season that started with hope – provided by a new head coach and a rookie QB, is now turning into full blown optimism and euphoria. Games are rarely won on a successful last second Hail Mary and things like that certainly don’t happen to Washington…. until now!
What Jayden Daniels is doing is remarkable. He is the face of the franchise, just 8 games into his first season as a pro. He’s mobile, elusive, has a cannon for an arm – and he makes plays! Last weekend, he went into the Bears game as a gametime decision with a rib injury. After the first time he was hit, medical staff were seen putting strapping around his torso on the sideline – surely nothing more than a token gesture. Everyone in the stadium knew he was playing hurt. The Bears defense knew he was hurt. The Commanders trailed by 3, 2 seconds remaining with the ball on their own side of midfield. Daniels extended the play, took his time and launched the ball…. the stadium went nuts, Noah Brown left holding the ball aloft, all alone in the endzone. Jayden Daniels legend continues to grow.
The Commanders are the outright leaders in the NFC East with a 6-2 record and their season couldn’t be more different to that being endured by the Giants. Their QB isn’t the toast of the town. Their offense isn’t putting points on the scoreboard and when the team gets a break, they haven’t been able to capitalise on it. Monday’s loss to Pittsburgh was a classic example. Twice holding the ball inside the final minute, deep in Pittsburgh territory, only to see Daniel Jones first fumble the ball away and then throw an interception. The Giants are last in the NFC East. Their record is 2-6 and there’s seemingly little hope of anything changing anytime soon. They lost 3 in a row while the commanders have won 6 of their last 7.
The Giants average just 14.6 points per game. The Commanders, 29.5! Washington’s defense ranks in the top 10 in points allowed (20.9). This is a mismatch! If Big Blue are to win, it’ll be in a low scoring game, and it would be a huge upset. Either way, it’s tough to see any scenario where they score more than 20 points – they’ve only done it twice all season – against a team who seem to have everything going their way right now.
PICK: New York Giants- under 20.5 points
Cowboys @ Falcons (Falcons -2.5)
At the start of the season this segment picked the Atlanta Falcons as dark horses to come out of the NFC and what we’ve seen through the first 8 weeks of the campaign only reinforces that belief. They’ve swept the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and lead the NFC South with a 5-3 record – 4 of those wins coming in the last 5 games.
The Dallas Cowboys have not fared so well. Even before being hit by the injury bug, all did not appear well in Big D. Opponents have run the ball for fun against them and piled up points on the scoreboard. In fact, only Carolina have a worse scoring defense than Dallas this season and only Carolina are worse defending the run. Dallas give up 28 points per game and 154 yards per game on the ground. Now here comes a team with one of the best running backs in the league. Bijan Robinson regularly makes defenders look silly and he’s as good catching the ball out of the backfield as he is running it.
Align this with a Cowboys offense that was ranked number 1 overall last season but is 15th this year, has the worst rushing attack in the NFL and is ranked 22nd in scoring… there’s cause for concern. The good news is some of those injured players are close to returning. Expect Daron Bland to return in the secondary and Micah Parsons could be available after a month out. The Falcons defense isn’t the tightest either – they give up 24.4 points per game. They gave up 26 last weekend to a Buccaneers team without their top 2 wide receivers.
Either way Atlanta still have too much firepower for this Cowboys team to keep quiet.
PICK: Atlanta Falcons -2.5
