49ers (4-4) @ Buccaneers (4-5) (49ers – 6.5)
Coming off a bye this looks like the ideal matchup for the San Francisco 49ers against a depleted Bucs team who are playing on a short week following their Monday Night Football loss in Kansas City.
The Niners are rested and boosted by the impending return to action of star running back, Christian McCaffrey. No question, their offense has struggled somewhat this season without him but half way through the season they have a 4-4 record and are just half a game back from their NFC West leading rivals, the Arizona Cardinals.
For the Buccaneers, it’s a different story. With Baker Mayfield at QB they continue to show plenty of fight and are a dangerous team if overlooked. Indeed, they were leading the Chiefs in the 4th quarter on Monday night. However, the loss of Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle) – their star wide receivers – is a huge setback. Evens won’t return until after their week 11 bye while Godwin is out for the season and you have to wonder just how much that overtime game against the Chiefs too out of this team.
You already know you’re guaranteed a physical game against the 49ers and should they get into an early lead, that will only increase the pressure on Baker Mayfield. Simply put for Tampa Bay to win this game, they’re going to need a few things to go their way. They will need to win the turnover battle, they’ll likely need a big play out of their Special Teams unit and the offense will have to be flawless.
The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for San Francisco. It gives them the opportunity to have some dinged up players like Deebo Samuel rested. McCaffrey likely returns and we’re now entering the business half of the season, where this team expects to be finding its best form. This game may be a battle at the outset but expect San Francisco to pull away in the 2nd half.
PICK: San Francisco 49ers -6.5
Steelers ( 6-2) @ Commanders ( 7-2) (Commanders -2.5)
Last week in this segment we gave the Commanders their acclaim – and it’s been well earned. Against the Giants they didn’t disappoint. Victory in New Jersey was their 7th in 8 games and they lead the NFC East with the Eagles half a game back in 2nd. Perhaps more impressively, they were able to win a road game without their workhorse running back, Brian Robinson (hamstring) – he’s expected to return against the Steelers.
Pittsburgh have had a fortnight to prepare for this matchup. Coming off a bye, the hope is that more time for Russell Wilson to work with his offense will be seen on the field this weekend. They come into this game ranked 26th in passing but 8th running the ball. On paper that could match up well for them – the Commanders are a lowly 29th when defending the run, giving up 143 yards per game. However, that’s not been a huge issue for them when opponents have spent most of their time playing catchup in games this season.
The Commanders, led by impressive rookie QB, Jayden Daniels have the number 3 ranked offense in the NFL. They are scoring 29 points per game and they’ve only turned the ball over 3 times all season – that’s the best in the NFL! This is why this game is so intriguing though. The Steelers defense is likely the best they’ll have faced to this point. Pittsburgh are only giving up around 15 points per game – that’s 2nd best. They are ranked 4th defending the run and number 6 in taking the ball away.
There’s a well known phrase in the NFL – “defense wins championships!” If that holds true, Pittsburgh go on the road and win this weekend. But the NFL is changing, the days when the 2000 Ravens went into games and won with a limited offense are in the rear view mirror. Commanders head coach, Dan Quinn is a shrewd defensive mind and now he has an explosive offense to work with as well. The Commanders are riding on the crest of a wave and that continues this weekend.
PICK: Washington Commanders -2.5
Eagles (6-2) @ Cowboys (3-5) (Eagles -7.5)
While Philadelphia survived a late scare to keep pace with the Commanders in the NFC East last weekend, the Cowboys were slumping to another defeat and this one is costly.
QB Dak Prescott sustained a hamstring injury and the initial prognosis is not good. He will miss several weeks at least. WR Cee Dee Lamb played through the pain of a sprained AC joint – it remains to be seen what his status is this weekend. This compounds the issues with an offense which can’t run the ball – and ranks 31st in rushing offense. An offense which effectively suspended Zeke Elliott for last weekends game for missing meetings and is averaging only 21 points per game.
Now they face a division rival who, while having their own issues to contend with, have still found ways to win games and can point to doing what Dallas didn’t in the off season – sign a veteran running back. Saquon Barkley has been outstanding for them since coming over from the Giants and the moves he put on some Giants defenders last weekend were so eye catching, Nike have already made an advert out of his backwards leap over a would be tackler. In 8 games he’s totalled 925 yards rushing alone! Dallas have 656 rushing yards, total!
Jalen Hurts has been inconsistent but the duel threat he possesses, making plays with legs as well as his arm has been enough and now Philadelphia are eyeing another playoff run. Last year the Eagles form collapsed in the 2nd half of the season with their defense shouldering much of the blame. That’s been addressed and as a result they head into this clash ranking in the top 10 in passing, rushing points allowed and overall defense.
Simply put, Philadelphia are the better team and although they’re on the road at a venue where they’ve lost their last 6 matchups, Dallas should be no competition here. They’re by far the healthier team, they have one of the best running backs in football going up against a defense who can’t stop the run and if that’s not enough, then how about Dallas’ record at home this season? The Cowboys are 0-3 at AT&T stadium this year, having been out scored 119-53 by their opponents.
PICK: Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
