Eagles (4-2) @ Bengals (3-4) (Bengals -2.5)
The Eagles have the better record coming into this matchup but is it possible the Bengals are the better team?
Philadelphia will rightly point out that it’s been a struggle getting their best players healthy and on the field this season – they’re still without starting left tackle, Jordan Mailata. However, there’s no escaping the fact this team has largely struggled to put points on the board this season – even when they’ve had a full compliment of receivers! Despite scoring 28 points in New York last weekend, Jalen Hurts was guilty of missing wide open receivers and in the end, it was the running power of Saquon Barkley which undid the Giants.
Contrast that with the Bengals, who struggled out of the gates at the start of the season, but their offense now appears to be finding its groove – and more importantly so too does the connection between Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase! All 6 of his touchdowns have come in the past 5 games and he’s had a reception of at least 33 yards in 4 of them. He is a problem that the Eagles must deal with on Sunday if they are to prevail here. This is the key to this game – Philadelphia’s 9th ranked defense against Cincinnati’s 8th ranked passing offense. What these stats don’t tell you is that the Bengal’s achieved this despite receiver, Tee Higgins missing the first handful of games with a hamstring injury and they did it while Chase took time to find his rhythm again after sitting out all of pre-season.
Philadelphia held the giants and Browns to 3 and 16 points respectively in their last 2 games but shipped 33 before that on the road in Tampa, when they largely shut down Barkley and the running game. That will surely be the gameplan for Cincinnati this weekend – and they possess far more fire power than either the Giants or Browns.
PICK: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
Titans (1-5) @ Lions (5-1) (Lions – over 29.5 points)
The worst record in the NFL against one of the best – and the team many now believe to be the best of the NFC.
Detroit went into undefeated Minnesota and impressively took them down last weekend. It’s not just the fact they won that game that was impressive, it was more the manner in which they won it. Down in a hole early on the road, coming back to take the lead. Then allowing the Vikings back into the game with a turnover, only to rally and clinch it themselves. That’s the steel, the mentality, the character that championship winning team have!
Now they host lowly Tennessee – a potential banana skin. It just hasn’t happened for the Titans this season, despite much initial optimism. QB Will Levis has had too many costly turnovers. They’ve lost tight games, and they haven’t been able to hold leads when they’ve had them. Last weekend was a perfect case in point. 10-0 up on the road, in Buffalo. The Bills would go on to score 34 unanswered points – and it’s not like Buffalo’s offense has been cooking over the last month!
If Tennessee are to have any chance to win this game, they will have to points on the board. Why? Well, Detroit hold an offense which is ranked in the top 5 in just about every major category. They are scoring 30 points per game. QB Jared Goff is playing perhaps the best football of his career. In their last 4 games alone the Detroit Loins have scored more touchdowns (18) than Goff has thrown incomplete passes (15) – that’s a ridiculous stat!
Tennessee will cling to any scrap of hope there is – and true, they do lay claim to the NFL’s number 1 ranked defense but in the crucial category of scoring defense, they’re down at 21st, giving up 24 points per game. They’ve given up 24 or more points in 4 of their 6 games this season and none of those teams are playing as well as Detroit. The question doesn’t appear to be if the Lions win on Sunday but by how much?
PICK: Detroit Lions – Over 29.5 Team Points
Chiefs (6-0) @ Raiders (2-5) (under 42 Total Points)
The Chiefs lose their top running back for an extended period – no problem. They lose their top wide receiver for the season – no problem. Their star tight end gets off to a slow start – NO PROBLEM! The Super Bowl champions just find ways to win. Incredibly, despite having to deal with all kinds of adversity, they are now the last undefeated team in the NFL and just look who’s next on the schedule…
This is a Raiders team, who are simply awful – they can’t get out of their own way! The head coach has already accused some players of making “business decisions” in games. Their star wide receiver has been traded away after not wanting to play for them and after benching their starting quarterback, Gardner Minshew is now back after his replacement broke his thumb. What chance then, that this patched up team is the one to take down the Chiefs?
Never underestimate a divisional rivalry or the power of a head coach who has shown he can get players to buy in to his philosophy. The fact that this game takes place in their stadium also counts in their favour. As does the result when they last met – Christmas Day in Arrowhead stadium last year, when Vegas ran out 20-15 winners.
Sorry Raiders fans, that’s as much as I have for you, heading into this match. In the previous 8 meetings between these two, Kansas City have scored at least 30 points – incredibly they’ve only won 7 of those encounters! But since 2017 the Chiefs are 11-2 when playing the Raiders.
Even though Kansas City haven’t been scoring at the prolific rate we’ve become accustomed to this season – they average 24 points per game – they don’t need to. Their defense is a match-up problem for any team in the league – top 10 overall, top 5 in scoring and top 4 in stopping the run. So, a struggling Raiders outfit, which hasn’t scored more than 20 points in the past month is unlikely to score enough here.
PICK: Total Points – Under 42
