Falcons (6-4) @ Broncos (5-5) (Falcons under 22.5 points)
The Broncos should be heading into week 11 with a 6-4 record. They will no doubt have spent the entire week reflecting on the one that got away – and make no mistake, they did let it slip away!
For 59 minutes they did everything right against the reigning Super Bowl champions. They went into Arrowhead Stadium, stifled Mahomes, frustrated the Chiefs and made plays when they needed to but they didn’t get the job done! Allowing the Chiefs to block a 35 yard field goal attempt as time expired and the near delirium that ensued as KC remained undefeated will hurt. It’s how this Denver team bounce back though, that will tell us exactly what kind of team Sean Payton has.
So many positives to take from that game. Bo Nix, though limited, did nothing to hurt this team and appears to be growing into a serviceable quarterback. Patrick Surtain – their star DB – leads a defense which just stifles opponents. They rank top 10 in almost every defensive stat bar takeaways and only give up around 17 points per game – indeed since week 2 they’ve conceded more than 18 points just once (41 at Baltimore). Most importantly though, they hung with the best team in the NFL, on Kansas City’s own turf and looked completely unphased.
Atlanta comes into this encounter with the better record and offensively they’ve got the players to hurt any opponent but defensively this is not a great team. Last weekend, in New Orleans, they gave up too many big plays and as a unit they sit in the bottom half of the league in almost every major category. This is a team which has generally shown an ability to win high scoring games this season, but this a will not be a high scoring game. The Falcons average just under 24 points per game but in the rarified air at Mile High it would be a surprise if they reached that mark. Indeed in 4 home games this season, the Broncos have only given up 54 points – total!
We’ll know a lot more about both this teams once this result is settled but it surely won’t be a shootout, whichever way it goes.
PICK: Atlanta Falcons – under 22.5 points
Texans (6-4) @ Cowboys (3-6) (Texans -7.5)
The Dallas Cowboys are a team in apparent freefall. We didn’t see much in the way of offense from the in the loss to Philadelphia. Offensive might be a better description for what the Cowboys fans are having to watch right now.
The fact that their matchup was just a 1 score game at the half said a lot more about Jalen Hurts and the way the Eagles played than it did about a Cowboys team which couldn’t throw the ball down field, repeatedly gave the ball away and could do nothing to stop the Eagles once they finally focused on playing solid football.
The Texans head into Dallas, looking to get back on track after suffering a heartbreaking loss on Sunday Night Football last weekend – in a game they had won! They led the Lions 23-7 at the half and finished the night with 5 interceptions but they missed a field goal opportunity to re-take the lead inside the final 2 minutes and then could only watch as Jake Bates squeezed in the game winning kick as time expired. They have a 6-4 record but their defense appears to be just struggling a little bit. Not since week 3 have they held an opponent to fewer than 20 points and when you’ve had to play much of the season without a number of key offensive players, that takes a toll. Fortunately for Houston, they expect WR Nico Collins to have a good chance of returning to action this weekend. If he does return, this is a tasty matchup against a Cowboys defense which has lost all 4 home games this season by an average of 23.5 points!
The Texans defense can rightly look at this as an opportunity to put a few things right as well. After all, the Cowboys have only scored 15 points in total over their last 2 home appearances, and they haven’t scored a single touchdown in those 2 games. With some kind of combination of Cooper Rush and Trey Lance playing at quarterback, if Houston can’t take advantage of this situation, they need to be asking themselves questions!
Houston win in Dallas – and they win, going away at the end!
PICK: Houston Texans -7.5
Chiefs (9-0) @ Bills (8-2) (Chiefs +2.5)
This is without doubt the game of the week!
Still undefeated. The reigning Super Bowl champions. The standard in the NFL right now…
The Kansas City Chiefs head into Buffalo for a game which could well determine who has home field advantage come the post season.
The Bills want to be that team, but they know it’s no guarantee of success. After all, they were at home to the Chiefs in the playoffs last season, and they let the opportunity slip through their fingers. Josh Allen has still never beaten Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs – but he does know what it’s like to beat him in the regular season. In fact, he has a 3-1 record against Patrick Mahomes in regular season games. The problem is his record is 0-3 when it matters most.
Buffalo are stampeding towards another AFC East title – 5 games ahead of their nearest rivals with an 8-2 record. They’re riding a 5 game winning streak, and they’ve scored 30+ points in each of their last 4. If that’s not enough, they’re likely to get stronger for this clash with the impending return of WR Amari Cooper from injury. Everything seems primed for this yardstick marker test.
KC are simply winners. They find a way, no matter the obstacle. Last weekend was a classic example. It wasn’t pretty, their offense wasn’t firing on all cylinders and victory looked improbable as Will Lutz lined up the game winning field goal and yet….. Leo Chenal – not one of the most recognisable names on this roster – came up with a game winning block. This is the same player who blocked a San Francisco 49ers extra point attempt in last year’s Super Bowl. Fundamentally, this is the strength of this Chiefs roster – everyone plays a role. Mahomes, Kelce, Jones, Pacheco – these are the names people know but this is a championship winning team. That is what the Bills have to overcome this weekend.
They’ll certainly have the support of the members of the 72 Dolphins – the only team ever in NFL history to go undefeated – but that’s because they fear Mahomes when he says this Chiefs team wants to create history. That includes going undefeated and sharing that platform.
This is the bottom line. Kansas City have now earned the right not to be doubted and until someone proves they can beat them and actually do it, I won’t be doubting them either.
Big game players make big time plays in big time games and make no mistake THIS is a big time game!
PICK: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
