BONUS PICK – KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3 v Ravens)
No team has every won 3 Super Bowls back to back to back. If the Kansas City chiefs were to win Super Bowl LVIX, they will be creating history and who is willing to bet against it?! That is nearly 5 months away though and a lot of water will flow under the bridge before then, starting with this mouthwatering season opener.
Ravens-Chiefs is a repeat of last season’s AFC Championship game with the one obvious difference. That game was in Baltimore, this is at Arrowhead Stadium where they will celebrate the Chiefs’ latest Super Bowl success and be desperate to see the home team leave victorious.
The disappointment in Baltimore last January cannot be overstated. They were the favourites. They had homefield advantage and they felt they had the better team. However, these Chiefs proved they revelled in the underdogs tag through last season and frankly, if anyone doubts the value of Patrick Mahomes, they are a fool. In the 2024 version of the NFL, when you’re talking quarterback hierarchy, there’s Mahomes and then there’s everyone else. That in itself must be a bitter pill to swallow for 2 x NFL MVP and Ravens QB, Lamar Jackson. Despite securing a post season win last year, the doubters won’t go away. For all his talent, all the regular season wins, the question remains – can Lamar Jackson win the big one? Is he the AFC’s version of Cowboys QB Dak Prescott? Can he deliver a championship to Baltimore?
Victory on Kick-Off night in the champions backyard would certainly ease the those concerns but the reality is, everyone expects both these teams to still be playing in January. This will represent little more than bragging rights for a few months. It will be a first outing for first year Defensive Coordinator, Zach Orr’s defense though – he could hardly have picked a tougher test. It will also give us an opportunity to see how Derick Henry fits into this Ravens offense.
For the Chiefs – they’ve added speed and playmaking ability in the form of rookie 1st round draft receiver, Xavier Worthy. Veteran Ju-Ju Smith Schuster has returned to the team, and they’ve moved to strengthen the offensive line through the Draft with Kingsly Suamataia. Ultimately though it was a well drilled defense and the Mahomes-Kelce connection which was the undoing of Baltimore in January. Those components are still in place and now back by a rabid home crowd.
12 months ago the Detroit Lions pulled off a big upset in in Kansas City on kick-off night, don’t expect history to repeat itself this time.
PICK: Chiefs -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5 v Commanders)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended up being one of the surprise teams last season. Only eliminated from the playoffs by the Detroit Lions thanks to a game killing final drive interception. They were just 2 games away from a place in the Super Bowl – with Baker Mayfield at QB!
Mayfield’s reward – a 3 year $115m deal. They’ve sought to give him more weapons through free agency with the addition of former Giant WR Sterling Shephard. Defensively, Jordan Whitehead has returned and after strengthening the offensive line with 1st round draft pick Graham Barton, we can expect their running game to improve.
In contrast, it’s been a season of change (again) in Washington. There’s a new head coach – ex-Cowboys Defensive Coordinator, Dan Quinn. Theres a new QB – 1st round draft pick Jayden Daniels. With it, comes hope and optimism but this matchup may also mix in a heavy dose of reality. Daniels is an exciting prospect – the stature of an archetypal NFL quarterback and with a live arm. However, the Bucs’ defense is good and any rookie mistakes will surely be exploited. Remember, last season’s mantra for Baker Mayfield was a simple one. Don’t turn the ball over, keep Tampa in the game and lean on that defense.
On paper at least, the Buccaneers look stronger heading into this season. The Commanders are certainly in a rebuilding phase. Often last year they were the architects of their own demise. At times they simply couldn’t get out of their own way with self-inflicted errors costing them game. While it’s reasonable to expect them to be stronger on defense, there will still be some rookie growing pains and this isn’t the type of match-up to get away with them.
PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5
Cowboys @ Browns (Cowboys +2.5)
Earlier this year the Cowboys Owner, President and General Manager, Jerry Jones declared they were “all in” for this season. Well, a quiet free agency period led many to believe that meant signed his 3 big stars to new long term contracts. However, it took until last week for receiver, CeeDee Lam to agree his 4 year, $136m deal while QB Dak Prescott is set to enter the final season of his current contract without a new agreement in place, meaning he’ll be free to walk away for nothing in March. Micah Parsons has had his 5th year option picked up but as yet, no new deal is in place.
It all means the off-season in Dallas has been an uneasy one and the bitter taste of a humiliating playoff loss to Green Bay just won’t go away. Mike Zimmer is back as the new defensive coordinator in the wake of Dan Quinn leaving for Washington and another familiar face returns. Ezekiel Elliott is back as RB1 on the depth chart despite his statistics year on year declining every year he’s been in the league.
Contrast that with the optimism in Cleveland. This was a team which made it into the playoffs on the arm of veteran Joe Flacco after DeShaun Watson’s season ended prematurely. He’s back and healthy now – and has a new weapon after the off season acquisition of Jerry Jeudy. We haven’t even mentioned their defense, led by the stud pass rusher, Myles Garrett – no doubt salivating at the prospect of going up against the Cowboys’ rookie left tackle, Tyler Guyton.
Everything points to a tough season opener for America’s Team. On the road, facing the Dawg Pound, against a team who some believe are genuine Super Bowl contenders. This could end up being a war of attrition. As such a field goal may well be enough to decide it and although I anticipate the Browns celebrating, it won’t necessarily be by a margin which covers this spread.
PICK: Dallas Cowboys +2.5
Jets @ 49ers (Jets +3.5) MNF
What a game this is to close out week 1. The NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers hosting the New York Jets and the return of Aaron Rodgers!
We all know about the strengths of the 49ers – boosted by the end of left tackle, Trent Williams’ hold out. Offensively, it will likely be, as you were to start the season. Defensively, it could be a little different. The loss of linebacker, Dre Greenlaw should not be overlooked after his freak Achilles injury in the Super Bowl. How San Francisco react to that will be significant – especially in games such as this.
The Jets’ offense – without Rodgers – was awful last year. He insists he’s 100% now and he has new toys to play with. Mike Williams has been added to the receiving corps. All-Pro left tackle, Tyron Smith is now protecting his blindside and running back Breece Hall is a difference maker. Align that with a defense which is unquestionably one of the best in the NFL…. whisper it quietly, but Jets fans, it maybe time to start believing.
All of this points to a blockbuster matchup to round out week 1 and do not be surprised if the Jets end it with an upset win in the Bay Area.
PICK: New York Jets +3.5
